Feb. 28, 2025, 7:51 a.m.
주의: 금리 역전 발생
2025년 02월 28일 대형주 가치투자 전략 리포트
1. 시장 상황 분석
- 금리 역전 현상: 발생
- 10Y-2Y: 0.22% (+2bp)
- 10Y-3M: -0.03% (+3bp)
- 변동성(VIX): 높음 (급등) · 21.1 (+10.6%)
- 투자 심리(FearGreed): Extreme Fear · 18.0 (-14.3%)
- 시장 동향:
- S&P 500: 하락 (-1.6%)
- KOSPI 200: 약보합 (-0.8%)
2. 저평가 대형주 현황
[S&P500 저평가 종목]
| 회사명 | 코드 | 기술적 신호 |
P/S 상대비율 |
EV/EBITDA 상대비율 |
섹터 | 산업 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal | PYPL | - | 0.13 | 0.39 | Financial Services | Credit Services |
| Hewlett Packard Enterprise | HPE | - | 0.27 | 0.33 | Technology | Communication Equipment |
| Jabil | JBL | - | 0.22 | 0.45 | Technology | Electronic Components |
| LyondellBasell | LYB | - | 0.27 | 0.46 | Basic Materials | Specialty Chemicals |
| Amentum | AMTM | - | 0.09 | 0.65 | Industrials | Specialty Business Services |
| Akamai Technologies | AKAM | - | 0.27 | 0.48 | Technology | Software - Infrastructure |
| HP Inc. | HPQ | - | 0.23 | 0.60 | Technology | Computer Hardware |
| Skyworks Solutions | SWKS | - | 0.47 | 0.37 | Technology | Semiconductors |
| APA Corporation | APA | SELL | 0.27 | 0.59 | Energy | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Cummins | CMI | - | 0.38 | 0.49 | Industrials | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| Leidos | LDOS | - | 0.28 | 0.58 | Technology | Information Technology Services |
| Warner Bros. Discovery | WBD | - | 0.40 | 0.47 | Communication Services | Entertainment |
| ON Semiconductor | ON | - | 0.55 | 0.33 | Technology | Semiconductors |
| Gen Digital | GEN | - | 0.39 | 0.50 | Technology | Software - Infrastructure |
| Viatris | VTRS | - | 0.34 | 0.56 | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic |
| Global Payments | GPN | - | 0.46 | 0.44 | Industrials | Specialty Business Services |
| Huntington Ingalls Industries | HII | - | 0.34 | 0.58 | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense |
| Builders FirstSource | BLDR | - | 0.40 | 0.51 | Industrials | Building Products & Equipment |
| Best Buy | BBY | - | 0.26 | 0.68 | Consumer Cyclical | Specialty Retail |
| Zimmer Biomet | ZBH | - | 0.45 | 0.48 | Healthcare | Medical Devices |
| Qorvo | QRVO | SELL | 0.33 | 0.65 | Technology | Semiconductors |
| Micron Technology | MU | - | 0.66 | 0.34 | Technology | Semiconductors |
| Biogen | BIIB | - | 0.48 | 0.54 | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Mosaic Company (The) | MOS | - | 0.41 | 0.63 | Basic Materials | Agricultural Inputs |
| Western Digital | WDC | - | 0.41 | 0.63 | Technology | Computer Hardware |
| Eastman Chemical Company | EMN | - | 0.54 | 0.53 | Basic Materials | Specialty Chemicals |
| LabCorp | LH | - | 0.32 | 0.75 | Healthcare | Diagnostics & Research |
| Quest Diagnostics | DGX | - | 0.39 | 0.69 | Healthcare | Diagnostics & Research |
| IQVIA | IQV | - | 0.44 | 0.68 | Healthcare | Diagnostics & Research |
| Edison International | EIX | - | 0.41 | 0.74 | Utilities | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Devon Energy | DVN | - | 0.48 | 0.68 | Energy | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Darden Restaurants | DRI | - | 0.43 | 0.75 | Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants |
| Paycom | PAYC | - | 0.71 | 0.48 | Technology | Software - Application |
| Centene Corporation | CNC | - | 0.58 | 0.61 | Healthcare | Healthcare Plans |
| Match Group | MTCH | - | 0.42 | 0.77 | Communication Services | Internet Content & Information |
| Corpay | CPAY | - | 0.59 | 0.62 | Technology | Software - Infrastructure |
| Medtronic | MDT | - | 0.57 | 0.64 | Healthcare | Medical Devices |
| PepsiCo | PEP | BUY | 0.48 | 0.74 | Consumer Defensive | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | REGN | - | 0.80 | 0.42 | Healthcare | Biotechnology |
| Bio-Rad Laboratories | BIO | - | 0.49 | 0.73 | Healthcare | Medical Devices |
| Carnival | CCL | - | 0.44 | 0.78 | Consumer Cyclical | Travel Services |
| Cognizant | CTSH | - | 0.56 | 0.67 | Technology | Information Technology Services |
| Generac | GNRC | - | 0.49 | 0.78 | Industrials | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| PG&E Corporation | PCG | - | 0.48 | 0.79 | Utilities | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Textron | TXT | - | 0.58 | 0.71 | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense |
| WestRock | WRK | - | 0.63 | 0.66 | Consumer Cyclical | Packaging & Containers |
| Pfizer | PFE | - | 0.53 | 0.77 | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| A. O. Smith | AOS | - | 0.64 | 0.66 | Industrials | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | - | 0.79 | 0.52 | Technology | Semiconductors |
| Dollar General | DG | - | 0.77 | 0.58 | Consumer Defensive | Discount Stores |
| Bath & Body Works, Inc. | BBWI | - | 0.70 | 0.66 | Consumer Cyclical | Specialty Retail |
| Steris | STE | - | 0.66 | 0.72 | Healthcare | Medical Devices |
| Merck & Co. | MRK | - | 0.79 | 0.59 | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Bunge Global | BG | - | 0.74 | 0.66 | Consumer Defensive | Farm Products |
| Automatic Data Processing | ADP | - | 0.74 | 0.67 | Technology | Software - Application |
| Halliburton | HAL | - | 0.64 | 0.77 | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services |
| Crown Castle | CCI | - | 0.70 | 0.78 | Real Estate | REIT - Specialty |
| PPG Industries | PPG | - | 0.75 | 0.74 | Basic Materials | Specialty Chemicals |
| Applied Materials | AMAT | - | 0.77 | 0.75 | Technology | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
[KOSPI200 저평가 종목]
| 회사명 | 코드 | 기술적 신호 |
P/S 상대비율 |
EV/EBITDA 상대비율 |
섹터 | 산업 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 006260.KS | - | 0.09 | 0.39 | Industrials | Electrical Equipment & Parts |
| LG이노텍 | 011070.KS | - | 0.26 | 0.23 | Technology | Electronic Components |
| 세방전지 | 004490.KS | - | 0.37 | 0.21 | Industrials | Electrical Equipment & Parts |
| HD한국조선해양 | 009540.KS | - | 0.32 | 0.34 | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense |
| 대웅 | 003090.KS | - | 0.28 | 0.40 | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic |
| 아모레G | 002790.KS | - | 0.57 | 0.12 | Consumer Defensive | Household & Personal Products |
| 종근당 | 185750.KS | - | 0.39 | 0.33 | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic |
| HD현대 | 267250.KS | - | 0.47 | 0.28 | Energy | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| 한일시멘트 | 300720.KS | - | 0.33 | 0.43 | Basic Materials | Building Materials |
| 더블유게임즈 | 192080.KS | - | 0.73 | 0.13 | Communication Services | Electronic Gaming & Multimedia |
| 현대건설 | 000720.KS | - | 0.36 | 0.50 | Industrials | Engineering & Construction |
| LX인터내셔널 | 001120.KS | - | 0.50 | 0.50 | Industrials | Conglomerates |
| 대한유화 | 006650.KS | - | 0.36 | 0.65 | Basic Materials | Chemicals |
| SK네트웍스 | 001740.KS | - | 0.67 | 0.37 | Industrials | Conglomerates |
| GS리테일 | 007070.KS | - | 0.42 | 0.67 | Consumer Cyclical | Department Stores |
| 현대위아 | 011210.KS | - | 0.38 | 0.71 | Consumer Cyclical | Auto Parts |
| DL이앤씨 | 375500.KS | - | 0.64 | 0.51 | Industrials | Engineering & Construction |
| KCC | 002380.KS | - | 0.53 | 0.64 | Basic Materials | Chemicals |
| 한국항공우주 | 047810.KS | - | 0.70 | 0.54 | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense |
| 삼성SDI | 006400.KS | - | 0.71 | 0.59 | Industrials | Electrical Equipment & Parts |
| CJ | 001040.KS | - | 0.75 | 0.55 | Industrials | Conglomerates |
| DB하이텍 | 000990.KS | - | 0.73 | 0.60 | Technology | Semiconductors |
| 씨에스윈드 | 112610.KS | - | 0.70 | 0.68 | Industrials | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| LG유플러스 | 032640.KS | - | 0.69 | 0.77 | Communication Services | Telecom Services |
3. 투자 전략
• 금리 역전이 발생한 상황으로, 보수적인 접근이 필요합니다.
• 현금 비중을 30% 이상으로 유지하는 것을 권장합니다.
• VIX가 급격히 상승(10.6%)하여 증시 변동성 확대가 예상됩니다.
• 투자 비중 확대는 신중하게 진행하시기 바랍니다.
• 투자 심리가 극도로 위축된 상황으로, 중장기 투자자에게는 좋은 매수 기회가 될 수 있습니다.
• 단, 시장 하락 가능성이 있어 분할 매수 전략이 필요합니다.
본 리포트는 투자정보 제공이 목적이며, 시장 상황에 따라 결과가 달라질 수 있습니다. 제시된 정보는 투자 참고사항이며, 투자 판단의 최종 책임은 투자자 본인에게 있습니다.
